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Probability vs. consequences

I’ll bet each of us has heard at least one of these responses from our clients or prospects: “I know stocks can go up or down, but, in the long run, I’m probably going to make money” or “I know I can get sick or hurt, but with modern medicine, I’ll probably be good as new … just like that!” or “Have you seen the new mortality tables? I’ll probably live to age 100 — maybe longer!”

They think that the “probabilities” are on their side. And they are!

But should they base their insurance and investment decisions on probabilities? That could lead to some bad decision-making.

I’ve always thought that asking great questions is the key to helping clients or prospects make a good decision about protecting those they love and insuring their lives. And making that question an analogy is powerful as it speaks to two things: It speaks to our behaviors, and it speaks to truth.

For example: “Mr. Prospect, have you ever taken a cruise? Do you remember the safety demonstration by the crew before leaving the port? The horn goes off, you put on a life jacket, everyone meets on deck, the whole nine yards, right? Do you think that’s required because of the probability of an issue at sea? Or the consequences?”

How about air travel? As we all know the airlines mandate a safety demonstration for every flight before takeoff, and if you sit too long on the tarmac, they do it a second time! Is that required because of the probability of an issue up in the air? Or the consequences?

Let me ask you this: Who here is a parent? OK, parents, I have a question for you: Would you ever put your children in a car and not buckle their seatbelt? Ever? Do you buckle them every single time? You don’t even think about it because of the probability of an accident or the consequences? I can remember when our oldest was 9, his brother was 7, their sister was 5, and the youngest was a newborn. I wouldn’t drive 5 feet unless they were all buckled in, and I had double-checked it.

How about masks? We have been dealing with these for over two years! [visual] Has it been about the probability of contracting the virus? Or the consequences?

What we need to do is this — tell our clients and prospects in a very straightforward way the following: “Mr. Prospect, you do not hire me to work in the world of probability; that’s not what you hire me to do. You hire me to work in the world of consequences.”

And then look the prospect in the eyes and say this: “If you can pass an exam, I can control the consequences.”

David L. Alarid
David L. Alarid
in Annual MeetingJun 29, 2022

Probability vs. consequences

People often think in terms of probability when it comes to life insurance. Alarid and Ashe explain why consequences is a more accurate word when discussing financial planning with clients and prospects.
Communication techniques
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Author(s):

David L. Alarid

David L. Alarid